ABSTRACT
Background: We aimed to assess the impact of regional heterogeneity on the severity of COVID-19 in Japan. Methods: We included 27,865 cases registered between January 2020 and February 2021 in the COVID-19 Registry of Japan to examine the relationship between the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) of COVID-19 patients on the day of admission and the prefecture where the patients live. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used to examine the random effect of each prefecture in addition to the patients’ backgrounds. In addition, we compared the results of two models; one model included the number of beds secured for COVID-19 patients in each prefecture as one of the fixed effects, and the other model did not. Results: The results indicated that the prefecture had a substantial impact on the severity of COVID-19 on admission. Even when considering the effect of the number of beds separately, the heterogeneity caused by the random effect of each prefecture affected the severity of the case on admission. Conclusions: Our analysis revealed a possible association between regional heterogeneity and increased/decreased risk of severe COVID-19 infection on admission. This heterogeneity was derived not only from the number of beds secured in each prefecture but also from other factors.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Background The severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections has led to the development of several therapeutic agents, with tocilizumab becoming increasingly used to treat patients with COVID-19-related pneumonia. Therefore, this study compared the use of tocilizumab treatment with the standard of care (SOC) to determine its efficacy against severe COVID-19-related pneumonia in Japan.Methods This retrospective cohort study was designed to evaluate the efficacy of tocilizumab in two different databases: the JA42434 single-arm study and COVID-19 Registry Japan (COVIREGI-JP) data, with a synthetic control group from the COVIREGI-JP cohort as a benchmark for the tocilizumab group. The study’s primary objective was to evaluate the efficacy of tocilizumab in treating severe COVID-19-related pneumonia compared to the SOC among patients included in the above two databases. The SOC group was extracted as the synthetic control group using exact matching and a propensity score matching in sequence per subject. As a secondary objective, the efficacy of tocilizumab compared to SOC was evaluated exclusively among patients included in the COVIREGI-JP database. In each objective, the primary endpoint was defined as the time to discharge or the status of awaiting discharge.Results For the primary endpoint, the hazard ratio (HR) of the tocilizumab group against the SOC group was 1.070 (95% CI: 0.565 to 2.028). The median time from Study Day 1 to discharge or the state of awaiting discharge was 15 days in the tocilizumab group and 16 days in the SOC group. The HRs for the secondary endpoints, namely, time to improvement in the clinical state, time to clinical failure, and time to recovery, were 1.112 (95% CI: 0.596 to 2.075), 0.628 (95% CI: 0.202 to 1.953), and 1.019 (95% CI: 0.555 to 1.871), respectively. Similarly, the HR of the primary endpoint for the secondary objective was 0.846 (95% CI: 0.582 to 1.230).Conclusions Tocilizumab did not demonstrate a positive effect on time to discharge or the state of awaiting discharge. Furthermore, no statistical differences, such as time to improvement in the clinical state, time to clinical failure, and time to recovery, were observed among the groups in other clinical outcomes.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , PneumoniaABSTRACT
Background: Japan is fast becoming an extremely aged society and older adults are known to be at risk of severe COVID-19. However, the impact of risk factors specific to this population for severe COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant of concern (VOC) are not yet clear. Methods: We performed an exploratory analysis using logistic regression to identify risk factors for severe COVID-19 illness among 4,868 older adults with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result who were admitted to a healthcare facility between 1 January 2022 and 16 May 2022. We then conducted one-to-one propensity score (PS) matching for three factors-dementia, admission from a long-term care facility, and poor physical activity status-and used Fisher's exact test to compare the proportion of severe COVID-19 cases in the matched data. We also estimated the average treatment effect on treated (ATT) in each PS matching analysis. Results: Of the 4,868 cases analyzed, 1,380 were severe. Logistic regression analysis showed that age, male sex, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic lung disease, renal failure and/or dialysis, physician-diagnosed obesity, admission from a long-term care facility, and poor physical activity status were risk factors for severe disease. Vaccination and dementia were identified as factors associated with non-severe illness. The ATT for dementia, admission from a long-term care facility, and poor physical activity status was -0.04 (95% confidence interval -0.07, -0.01), 0.09 (0.06, 0.12), and 0.17 (0.14, 0.19), respectively. Conclusions: Our results suggest that poor physical activity status and living in a long-term care facility have a substantial impact on the risk of severe COVID-19 caused by the Omicron VOC, while dementia might be associated with non-severe illness.
Subject(s)
Dementia , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive , Cardiovascular Diseases , Cerebrovascular Disorders , Renal Insufficiency , Obesity , COVID-19ABSTRACT
Background: With the rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 patients in Japan, the number of patients receiving oxygen at home has also increased rapidly, and some of these patients have died. An efficient approach to identify high-risk patients with slowly progressing and rapidly worsening COVID-19, and to avoid missing the timing of therapeutic intervention will improve patient prognosis and prevent medical complications. Methods: Patients admitted to medical institutions in Japan from November 14, 2020 to April 11, 2021 and registered in the COVID-19 Registry Japan were included. Risk factors for patients with High Flow Nasal Cannula invasive respiratory management or higher were comprehensively explored using machine learning. Age-specific cohorts were created, and severity prediction was performed for the patient surge period and normal times, respectively. Results: We were able to obtain a model that was able to predict severe disease with a sensitivity of 57% when the specificity was set at 90% for those aged 40-59 years, and with a specificity of 50% and 43% when the sensitivity was set at 90% for those aged 60-79 years and 80 years and older, respectively. We were able to identify lactate dehydrogenase level (LDH) as an important factor in predicting the severity of illness in all age groups. Discussion: Using machine learning, we were able to identify risk factors with high accuracy, and predict the severity of the disease. Using machine learning, we were able to identify risk factors with high accuracy, and predict the severity of the disease. We plan to develop a tool that will be useful in determining the indications for hospitalisation for patients undergoing home care and early hospitalisation.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Background: We aimed to assess the impact of regional heterogeneity on the severity of COVID-19 in Japan. Methods: We included 27,865 cases registered between January 2020 and February 2021 in the COVID-19 Registry of Japan to examine the relationship between the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) of COVID-19 patients on the day of admission and the prefecture where the patients live. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used to examine the random effect of each prefecture in addition to the patients' backgrounds. In addition, we compared the results of two models; one model included the number of beds secured for COVID-19 patients in each prefecture as one of the fixed effects, and the other model did not. Results: The results indicated that the prefecture had a substantial impact on the severity of COVID-19 on admission. Even when considering the effect of the number of beds separately, the heterogeneity caused by the random effect of each prefecture affected the severity of the case on admission. Conclusions: Our analysis revealed a possible association between regional heterogeneity and increased/decreased risk of severe COVID-19 infection on admission. This heterogeneity was derived not only from the number of beds secured in each prefecture but also from other factors.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Background: The aim of this study was to identify associations between smoking status and the severity of COVID-19 using a large-scale data registry of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Japan (COVIREGI-JP) and to explore the reasons for the inconsistent results previously reported on this subject. Methods: The analysis included 17,702 COVID-19 inpatients aged 20-89 years (10,279 men and 7,423 women). We graded the severity of COVID-19 (grade 0 to 5) according to the most intensive treatment required during hospitalization. Associations of smoking status with severe grade 3/4/5 (invasive mechanical ventilation/extracorporeal membrane oxygenation/death) and separately with grade 5 (death) were analyzed using multiple logistic regression with grade 0 (no oxygen) as the control group. Results were expressed as odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for age and other factors considering the potential intermediate effects of comorbidities.Findings: Among men, former smoking significantly increased the risk of grade 3/4/5 and grade 5, with age-adjusted ORs (95% CI) of 1·50 (1·18-1·90) and 1·65 (1·23-2·21), respectively. An additional adjustment for comorbidities weakened these ORs to 1·29 (1·00-1·66) and 1.41 (1·01-1·95), respectively. Similar results were seen for women. Current smoking did not significantly increase the risk of grade 3/4/5 and grade 5 in either sex.Interpretation: Smoking cessation should be recommended even if the observed relationship between current smoking and the severity of COVID-19 is null because current smoking increases the risks of future comorbidities due to different diseases that increase the risk of severe COVID-19.Funding Information: This research was funded by the Health and Labour Sciences Research grant (19HA1003, 20CA2031) and the National Center for Global Health and Medicine (20A-3002).Declaration of Interests: All authors report no conflict of interest.Ethics Approval Statement: This study was approved by the National Center for Global Health and Medicine (NCGM) ethics review (NCGM-G-003494-0).
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Objectives: To investigate the risk factors contributing to severity on admission. Additionally, risk factors on worst severity and fatality were studied. Moreover, factors were compared based on three points: early severity, worst severity, and fatality. Design: A observational cohort study utilizing data entered in a Japan nationwide COVID-19 inpatient registry, COVIREGI-JP. Setting: As of August 31, 2020, 7,546 cases from 780 facilities have been registered. Participating facilities cover a wide range of hospitals where COVID-19 patients are admitted in Japan. Participants: Participants who had a positive test result on any applicable SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic tests, and were admitted to participating healthcare facilities. A total of 3,829 cases were identified from January 16 to May 31, 2020, of which 3,376 cases were included in this study. Primary and secondary outcoe measures: Primary outcome was severe or non-severe on admission, determined by the requirement of mechanical ventilation or oxygen therapy, SpO2, or respiratory rate. Secondary outcome was the worst severity during hospitalization, judged by the requirement of oxygen and/or IMV/ECMO. Results: Risk factors for severity on admission were older age, male, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, obesity, and hypertension. Cerebrovascular disease, liver disease, renal disease or dialysis, solid tumor, and hyperlipidemia did not influence severity on admission ; however it influenced worst severity. Fatality rates for obesity, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia were relatively lower. Conclusions: This study segregated the comorbidities driving severity and death. It is possible that risk factors for severity on admission, worst severity, and fatality are not consistent and may be propelled by different factors. Specifically, while hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and obesity had major effect on worst severity, their impact was mild on fatality in the Japanese population. Some studies contradict our results; therefore, detailed analyses, considering in-hospital treatments, are needed for validation. Trial registration: UMIN000039873. https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000045453
Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases , Diabetes Mellitus , Cerebrovascular Disorders , Neoplasms , Obesity , Kidney Diseases , Chronic Disease , Hypertension , Death , COVID-19 , Hyperlipidemias , Liver DiseasesABSTRACT
Objectives Although several randomised controlled trials have compared the efficacy of remdesivir with that of placebo, there is limited evidence regarding its effect in the early stage of nonsevere COVID-19 cases. Methods We evaluated the efficacy of remdesivir on the early stage of nonsevere COVID-19 using the COVID-19 Registry Japan, a nationwide registry of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Japan. Two regimens (start remdesivir therapy within 4 days from admission vs. no remdesivir during hospitalisation) among patients without the need for supplementary oxygen therapy were compared by a three-step processing (cloning, censoring, and weighting) method. The primary outcome was supplementary oxygen requirement during hospitalisation. Secondary outcomes were 30-day fatality risk and risk of invasive mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (IMV/ECMO). Results The data of 12,657 cases met our inclusion criteria. The ‘start remdesivir’ regimen showed a lower risk of supplementary oxygen requirement (hazard ratio: 0.861, p < 0.001). Both 30-day fatality risk and risk of IMV/ECMO introduction were not significantly different between the two regimens (hazard ratios: 1.05 and 0.886, p values: 0.070 and 0.440, respectively). Conclusions Remdesivir might reduce the risk of oxygen requirement during hospitalisation in the early stage of COVID-19; however, it had no positive effect on the clinical outcome and reduction of IMV/ECMO requirement.